Mar. 31st, 2011

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The Occurrence Rate of Earth Analog Planets Orbiting Sunlike Stars
Authors: Joseph Catanzarite, Michael Shao (Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology)

Abstract: Kepler is a space telescope that searches Sun-like stars for planets. Its major goal is to determine the fraction of Sunlike stars that have planets like Earth... Here, we show that 1.4% to 2.7% of stars like the Sun are expected to have Earth analog planets, based on the Kepler data release of Feb 2011.


The full paper is at http://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1103/1103.1443.pdf.  Note that by "sunlike" the study means FGK stars.

Let's say the actual percentage is 2.05%, which is the halfway point between the upper and lower limits.  Solstation.com tells us there are 303 known F stars within 100 light years of Sol, 512 G stars and 947 K stars.  That comes to 1762 stars.  If 2.05% of them have Earth analog planets, that's 36 of them within 100 light years.  Note that there are likely to be many sunlike stars that haven't been discovered, particularly K stars more than 50 light years out.

Keeping it closer to home, there are at least 254 FGK stars within 50 light years.  2.05% of that would give us 5 Earth analogs.

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